Roughly three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said Vice President Kamala Harris should be nominated for the top of their ticket in November, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.
538, by design, lags behind the latest polling, because they’re intentionally smoothing out the numbers. Trends - if they’re real - will take time to express themselves as a result.
The key takeaway here is that these numbers are still very good for the Dems, because Trump is at his absolute ceiling in popularity. He’s coming off of a strong debate performance and nearly being killed. That’s as good as it gets for him. The American public isn’t going to grow to like him as they get to know him more; he’s dominated political discourse non-stop for the last eight years. There’s no room left for him to grow.
Kamala, on the other hand, has a lot of room to grow. That doesn’t guarantee that she will, but it puts all the initiative in her hands. There’s still time for the Dems to play this wrong, but also a lot of space for them to play it right.
538’s poll aggregator says that while Kamala does better than Biden, Trump is still ahead in the polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
The latest polls are now showing Harris slightly ahead (even to 4% lead). But it’s way to early to make any strong conclusions.
I’m certainly looking forward to their election predictor coming back up once the nominee is confirmed.
It’s fucked how American politics is treated like a football game watched through a stock ticker.
it’s just one poll, could be noise. pollsnfrom the last few months consistently showed trump ahead of harris.
next 3-4 weeks will give a good overview with multiple polls.
538, by design, lags behind the latest polling, because they’re intentionally smoothing out the numbers. Trends - if they’re real - will take time to express themselves as a result.
The key takeaway here is that these numbers are still very good for the Dems, because Trump is at his absolute ceiling in popularity. He’s coming off of a strong debate performance and nearly being killed. That’s as good as it gets for him. The American public isn’t going to grow to like him as they get to know him more; he’s dominated political discourse non-stop for the last eight years. There’s no room left for him to grow.
Kamala, on the other hand, has a lot of room to grow. That doesn’t guarantee that she will, but it puts all the initiative in her hands. There’s still time for the Dems to play this wrong, but also a lot of space for them to play it right.