Things talking about waiting a week or two and then it being basically safe to emerge are based on things like Chernobyl, not events where there is fallout being blown through the atmosphere from explosions across the globe.
There were about 2,060 nuclear warheads detonated as part of various nuclear tests by all countries combined. So we know how fallout behaves and it is not based on Chernobyl.
In addition, there is only about 13,400 warhead in the world, about 9000 of which are not actively deployed and therefore would not be part of an unexpected nuclear exchange. So no, the fallout would not be fun, but it would not kill that many people. Especially if they stayed in a bunker for a few weeks.
Due to the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, the majority of bombs since 1962 were detonated underground to limit fallout dispersion.
Also keep in mind that A-bombs like were dropped in Japan killed everyone within a 1 mile radius. Modern warheads are H-bombs which kill everyone in a 5-10 mile radius.
Due to the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, the majority of bombs since 1962 were detonated underground to limit fallout dispersion.
Ok, so we have data only on about 300 above ground nuclear detonations, instead of 2,000. And those 300 included H-Bombs.
Also keep in mind that A-bombs like were dropped in Japan killed everyone within a 1 mile radius. Modern warheads are H-bombs which kill everyone in a 5-10 mile radius.
And how far from a large city do you think the suburbs spread? Yes, anyone near the city center has no chance. That was not disputed by anyone.
And if we want to be pedantic, a hardened underground bunker would probably have chances for survival quite a bit closer than 5-10 miles.
60+ years ago medical science was a lot worse than today. They were still giving people lobotomies and using leaded gas in the 50s and 60s. They knew the acute effects of radiation but some of the long term effects did not become apparent until decades later. Just because you survive the initial blast, does not mean you escape harm. Suburban areas as much as 20 miles downwind could receive severe fallout.
I wouldn’t trust the bunkers to be able to maintain a consistent supply of air, water, and electricity for extended periods of time. Once you have to flee to the surface, you have to contend with not only radiation but a complete collapse of infrastructure and social services. Fires will burn unchecked with fire departments dead or overwhelmed and broken gas lines stoking fires among the rubble. Water supplies will be interrupted or tainted. Electrical services will probably have failed along with cell and internet. Roads will be blocked by debris and abandoned vehicles, so even if anyone wanted to risk radiation to bring in supplies, it would be extremely difficult. Deaths from thirst or starvation will follow the deaths from radiation.
Hiroshima had about 250,000 people and conservatively 66k were killed and another 69k were injured from the initial blast. The final total killed is between 90k-166k. Now extrapolate that to cities with 10x the population hit by a bomb that affects 10x the area. Now imagine 10 cities like this being hit at once. Social collapse would be inevitable and nobody is going to be able to outlast that in a bunker.
Which is exactly what I said. That survival would mainly depend on getting a source of food after having to leave the bunker.
PS: I guess I will address the fallout one last time. The most dangerous radioactive elements in nuclear fallout are those with shortest half-life, since they decay the fastest, releasing radiation the fastest. But they also disappear fast since they decay, so in a few weeks, the radiation would be at a very survivable level. You, as you are now, would absolutely not want to receive such dose and it would increase your lifetime risk of cancer. But it would not make it into top 10 concerns you would have in a post-ww3 world.
Increasing your odds of surviving the initial blast and waiting out those first few weeks where fallout is a concern is what a bunker would be useful for.
There were about 2,060 nuclear warheads detonated as part of various nuclear tests by all countries combined. So we know how fallout behaves and it is not based on Chernobyl.
In addition, there is only about 13,400 warhead in the world, about 9000 of which are not actively deployed and therefore would not be part of an unexpected nuclear exchange. So no, the fallout would not be fun, but it would not kill that many people. Especially if they stayed in a bunker for a few weeks.
Due to the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, the majority of bombs since 1962 were detonated underground to limit fallout dispersion.
Also keep in mind that A-bombs like were dropped in Japan killed everyone within a 1 mile radius. Modern warheads are H-bombs which kill everyone in a 5-10 mile radius.
Ok, so we have data only on about 300 above ground nuclear detonations, instead of 2,000. And those 300 included H-Bombs.
And how far from a large city do you think the suburbs spread? Yes, anyone near the city center has no chance. That was not disputed by anyone.
And if we want to be pedantic, a hardened underground bunker would probably have chances for survival quite a bit closer than 5-10 miles.
60+ years ago medical science was a lot worse than today. They were still giving people lobotomies and using leaded gas in the 50s and 60s. They knew the acute effects of radiation but some of the long term effects did not become apparent until decades later. Just because you survive the initial blast, does not mean you escape harm. Suburban areas as much as 20 miles downwind could receive severe fallout.
I wouldn’t trust the bunkers to be able to maintain a consistent supply of air, water, and electricity for extended periods of time. Once you have to flee to the surface, you have to contend with not only radiation but a complete collapse of infrastructure and social services. Fires will burn unchecked with fire departments dead or overwhelmed and broken gas lines stoking fires among the rubble. Water supplies will be interrupted or tainted. Electrical services will probably have failed along with cell and internet. Roads will be blocked by debris and abandoned vehicles, so even if anyone wanted to risk radiation to bring in supplies, it would be extremely difficult. Deaths from thirst or starvation will follow the deaths from radiation.
Hiroshima had about 250,000 people and conservatively 66k were killed and another 69k were injured from the initial blast. The final total killed is between 90k-166k. Now extrapolate that to cities with 10x the population hit by a bomb that affects 10x the area. Now imagine 10 cities like this being hit at once. Social collapse would be inevitable and nobody is going to be able to outlast that in a bunker.
Which is exactly what I said. That survival would mainly depend on getting a source of food after having to leave the bunker.
PS: I guess I will address the fallout one last time. The most dangerous radioactive elements in nuclear fallout are those with shortest half-life, since they decay the fastest, releasing radiation the fastest. But they also disappear fast since they decay, so in a few weeks, the radiation would be at a very survivable level. You, as you are now, would absolutely not want to receive such dose and it would increase your lifetime risk of cancer. But it would not make it into top 10 concerns you would have in a post-ww3 world.
Increasing your odds of surviving the initial blast and waiting out those first few weeks where fallout is a concern is what a bunker would be useful for.