Problem is that from what I understand Zaluzhny is also a banderite, so it’s not clear he’d actually do the sensible thing after a coup. I do think that a coup is more likely than a purge though. Most of the military seems to be loyal to Zaluzhny, and I don’t think it’s gonna go well if Zelensky tries to remove him. The other obvious problem here is that Budanov has no command experience making him supremely unqualified to lead the army.
It’s also not clear how much support any sort of an insurgency would actually have in Ukraine at this point. Public opinion polls seem to indicate that people are tired of the war and they don’t trust the government anymore. If there is a military collapse, I expect that most people will just accept that Russia won. Any kind of insurgency relies on having substantial public support, and I don’t think it’s gonna be there.
So if I understand correctly, unless Russia take Kiev and put a new government in place, we should expect the Banderites to stick around for the next few years after the war at least?
Problem is that from what I understand Zaluzhny is also a banderite, so it’s not clear he’d actually do the sensible thing after a coup. I do think that a coup is more likely than a purge though. Most of the military seems to be loyal to Zaluzhny, and I don’t think it’s gonna go well if Zelensky tries to remove him. The other obvious problem here is that Budanov has no command experience making him supremely unqualified to lead the army.
It’s also not clear how much support any sort of an insurgency would actually have in Ukraine at this point. Public opinion polls seem to indicate that people are tired of the war and they don’t trust the government anymore. If there is a military collapse, I expect that most people will just accept that Russia won. Any kind of insurgency relies on having substantial public support, and I don’t think it’s gonna be there.
So if I understand correctly, unless Russia take Kiev and put a new government in place, we should expect the Banderites to stick around for the next few years after the war at least?
Hard to say, but definitely a possible scenarios. All going to depend on how far Russia decides to push this.