via: https://nflplayoffscenarios.com/
If KC wins out the worst possible seed is: 3
LV is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
- LV loss + KC win/tie OR
- LV loss + DEN win OR
- LV tie + KC win
LV is eliminated from playoff contention with:
- LV loss + KC win/tie + An absurd set of permutations OR
- LV loss + DEN win + An absurd set of permuations
LAC is knocked out of AFC West title contention with:
- LAC loss + KC win/tie OR
- LAC loss + DEN win OR
- LAC tie + KC win
LAC is eliminated from playoff contention with:
- LAC loss + KC win/tie + An absurd set of permutations OR
- LAC loss + DENDEN win + An absurd set of permuations
Results from 1 million simulations with home win/away win/tie all equally likely:
| Team | 1 seed | 2 seed | 3 seed | 4 seed | 5 seed | 6 seed | 7 seed | Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 3% | 19% | 31% | 29% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 9% |
| DEN | <1% | 1% | 5% | 11% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 60% |
| LAC | 0% | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 99% |
| LV | 0% | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 99% |
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