I think that it will not be waged between North and South for state rights, but rather between Republicans and Democrats for human rights. It will happen before our 250th anniversary in 2026.
I don’t think it will devolve to a shooting war like 150 years ago, mainly because ordinary Americans have too much going on to want to send the army to preserve the Union. I can see the Conservative states saying “Do things our way or we’re leaving!” And the rest of the country saying “Bye! Good luck running a country without our tax revenue!”
Things are very heated right now certainly. But there are still a lot of people (a LOT) of people who just want to live their lives and are not going to literally wage war on people in their own country.
It’s not a zero percent chance but it’s near zero.
I certainly hope so, but one side (which I won’t name because I think it’s obvious enough) doesn’t seem content with just living their lives, they want to force themselves on the lives of others as well so that the whole country will be just as shitty as they are and then they won’t have to feel so bad about it.
Yeah that part is scary. But even that side (which we won’t name) has a significant number of people who, while they have bad opinions and want bad things, don’t actually want the level of insanity and violence we have seen from supporters of a certain unnaturally colored presidential figure.
I have real hope that people are figuring the problem out soon enough that they can solve some of this through increased voter turnout and higher engagement. If we’d gone another decade of complacency we’d be in a lot worse spot because many legitimate avenues of combating oppressive policies might have gotten blocked. But as it is, people can still effect change. That makes actual civil war unlikely, at least for now.
Most americans think the “sides” are red vs blue, which is absolutely 100% wrong in all ways. So as long as that belief holds true a civil war is impossible.
I don’t think we’ll see something like the first American civil war, where it’s a declared war with two armies fighting, but rather an increase in vigilante and extra-judicial action with an increasingly political bent. In fact, I think we’re already seeing the start of this, with little jumpstart paramilitary groups popping up (thus far with little organization or success, thankfully). I think the mass shootings that seem so commonplace now will only get worse. I think the Republican party will continue to silently voice their support through an unwillingness to bring the hammer down on them.
I think all of this will continue until eventually we see another, better organized, more militant attempt at a coup, and either they’ll be successful, and we’ll experience a major governmental shift, probably towards fascism, or they’ll be unsuccessful and the response will be swift and severe and we’ll stamp out all of that BS, or they’ll be unsuccessful but we won’t really do anything to stop it from happening again, and it’ll reoccur again until we do.
Don’t hate me for this, but American news always reminds me of the Handmaid’s Tale and how some people have taken an inspiration from it to make it a reality. With the abortion bans, anti Lbgtq+, the attempted ‘coup’, … It’s starting I guess.
It feels kind of ridiculous, honestly. So much of the shit that’s happened in the last 6-8 years feels like something you’d see in a really low budget movie and slam it for in reviews, for the entirely unbelievable plot and too overt villains. There’s no subtlety about it anymore; things that used to be whispered are now shouted from the rooftops and a frustratingly loud minority applauds them while the sensible people quietly stay inside posting angrily on social media. I am just as guilty of that as anyone else.
I definitely do get the feeling Liberal/Left Americans (inb4 “liberals arent leftists!!!,” true but the particular issues I’m referencing are things liberals and leftists mostly agree on) and Conservative Americans have different, incompatible, moral systems where a compromise can’t be reached.
I think it’s possible but not probable. It’s not like we’re already seeing widespread squabbles or serious secession talk (ultimately I don’t think the war would be fought on state lines but I do think secession talk would start happening before war breaks out.) Then again something like Trump getting put behind bars could change everything.
This is the plot of Empire by Orson Scott Card
What is it with you lot with your obsession and fixation on rights? Why do you want the government to dictate your thoughts and actions so much?
Why do you want the government to dictate your thoughts and actions so much?
I want the government to protect me from the dumb fucks that actually do want the government to dictate how I should live my life. It’s the pieces of human garbage that want to tell men they can’t marry another man, that tell women they don’t have autonomy over their own body, that want to stop the teaching of the theory of evolution and include prayer in school, that want to dictate others’ lives.
Those calling for more rights aren’t asking for the government to dictate anyone’s lives. They’re literally doing the opposite of that.
Enforcing policy is dictating lives though, how about just use a different name for marriage and do a different ritual? Unless that’s only if you actually only care for inheritance laws.
2010 called. They want their dumb, regressive talking points back
I’d prefer a rational discussion rather than emotional irrationality
It doesn’t sound like you’re being rational. It sounds more like you’re being facetious when you say things like “enforcing policy is dictating lives.” By this we can imply that you believe murder is a right. Theft is a right. Rape is a right. That because there is a punishment for these acts, your life is being dictated by others.
No I don’t, you shouldn’t jump to assumptions
Well then how do you propose to stop these things from being reality if you are not for the enforcement of policy?
You may not be as rational or smart as you think you are.
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how about just use a different name for marriage and do a different ritual?
So you want a separate name and ritual for people who aren’t like you want them to be, and expect everyone to believe that it will be equal?
No. Everyone knows how “separate but equal” pans out in the “equal” department.
It’s not an infringement of your rights to stop you from beating/killing people you don’t like. It’s not an infringement of your rights to allow others to do things you don’t want to do yourself. Nobody owns the “ritual” of marriage, and it’s not an infringement of anyone’s rights for another belief system of any kind (theist or not) to duplicate it.
How about people just treat each better than forcing it on people by the state.
We tried that, several times, each time the south did something stupid like dredd Scott or Jim crow or the kkk.
The only way to stop them from trying to keep brown people as pets was to send soldiers, they don’t understand any other language.
It’s sad you think like that
I lived in the south and I’m not white, how did you expect me to think?
That’s what laws seek to do because people clearly don’t do it on their own, dumbass. Be good to others, or face punishment. It’s not fucking rocket science here.
No it’s not but you should be genuinely good and not down the barrel of a gun with coercion or threats.
I’m going to guess you’re Christian. I’m also going to guess you don’t see one bit of irony with your statement.
They don’t though, otherwise there would be no need for a justice system altogether. There are “people” out there that have wet dreams of lgbt people being incriminated and women having less rights than men, the rest of society should be protected from them instead of putting them in government positions.
I think deep down that is what you want, I think you want lgbt people to be incriminated and women to have less rights because then you have a bogeyman to fight against.
So much for a rational discussion. Great showing for yourself and others with similar beliefs.
That’s some exceptional mental gymnastics right there, keep thinking like that and you’ll go far
Giving trans people the right to healthcare only affects their lives. So tell me again how this terrible government overreach occurs when we say “you can’t make laws to restrict someone’s freedom”?
You can’t, because it doesn’t.
Trans people have the same “right” to healthcare as every other American.
Please read Karl Popper’s “The Paradox of Tolerance”.
