Third post tonight but I’m posting anyway.

Personally, I don’t see how the Palestinian resistance has any chance of winning this conflict unless Hezbollah and/or a foreign nation like Lebanon, Syria, or Egypt for instance joins in.

  • StalinForTime [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    1 year ago

    People saying there should be all out attacks by neighbors need to get off their Armchair General chair imo or stop playing Age of Empires. Like please actually consider realistically what will happen and analyze materially what is going on.

    If Iran was to launch a all out attack on Israel then Israel and the US would likely escalate to the point of using their nukes. Then it’s an Armageddon situation, and the left, and ultimately the mass of people in the Middle East, are not going to benefit. To the extent that anyone will benefit it will be Islamists, who’s objectives and interests are fundamentally at odds with those of socialist movements.

    If anyone thinks this would be productive for the Middle Eastern left then they haven’t gone their head screwed on right.

    Those other nations are not led by idiots or ultra edge lords on the internets. They are ware that to attack Israel at this point would be catastrophic for everyone involved. They have their own interests and will likely use diplomatic pressure. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’d be shocked.

    Hezbollah is different as they are an Islamist group which have someone like a state within a state in Lebanon. They have shelled, but have not launched anything like a massive attack, not least because if they did either Israel or even the US may the intervene seriously in Lebanon or stay bringing out their more serious weapons of war so to speak. They have more interest, as always, like the leadership of Hamas, in milking the deaths of countless Palestinians for their own political benefit and legitimacy. Any other view of these groups is naive imo.

    In terms of how the Palestinians can win, well I’d point first of all how neither Palestinians nor the range of opposition is identical to Hamas, which is a mistake that people on this site still incapable of not making. They are not democratic representatives of either Gazas nor obviously the Palestinians in the other territories.

    The way Palestinians would win is by brining Israel economically to its knees and forcing them to accept a Palestinian state, though at this point. I’m pessimistic no matter the outcome. Just as Leninists recognize that indiscriminate terrorism is not going to being about revolution, but mass-organized labour groups are, the same applies in Palestine. It tells me volumes that people on this site don’t seem to be aware or are conveniently ignoring that Hamas, like the PA and Israel, have actively prevented any organic, mass labour movements from emerging in a form like the First Intifada. They are terrified of that possibility because like all Islamists they are acutely aware that that is antithetical to their interests.

    • cayde6ml@lemmygrad.ml
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      1 year ago

      Its already an uphill battle organizing in a regular capitalist society, but in a situation as uniquely oppressive as Israel is to Palestine, unfortunately sometimes you have to make due with what you got. Nobody here said that Hamas is the democratic representative of Palestinians, but a fairly large chunk of them accept them as way more fair and less hostile than Israel.

      • ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
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        1 year ago

        Lesser of two evils does not make them good. They are accepted because there is no alternative. Something that Hamas has tried very hard to maintain.

        • cayde6ml@lemmygrad.ml
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          1 year ago

          I never said it makes them good, but I would like to see more reading about how Hamas tried hard to maintain that, if you have links.