As its Ukrainian proxy faces defeat, the US-led bloc is becoming increasingly reckless. Where will this hubris lead us?
By Igor Istomin, acting head of the Department of Applied Analysis of International Problems at MGIMO University.
The possibility of a trans-European war is closer today than at any time since the mid-20th century. Western analysts discuss various scenarios of a possible conflict, while officials openly speculate about its likelihood and even discuss specific time horizons.
In a recent speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that the actions of Western governments had brought the world “to the point of no return.” At the same time, domestic debate in Russia is dominated by the belief that the US and its allies recognize the catastrophic risks of a direct military confrontation with Moscow and will seek to avoid it for reasons of self-preservation.
Such judgments are based on the assumption that the West, despite its aggressiveness and arrogance, is guided in its policies by a rational balance of benefits and costs based on the existing balance of power. Past experience, however, does not convince us that the US-led bloc is capable of pursuing a balanced, calculated course.
A recent admission by US President Joe Biden is telling: “If we ever let Ukraine fail, mark my words, you will see Poland go, and you will see all these countries along Russia’s actual border negotiate on their own.” Thus, the good old ‘domino theory’ is back in the minds of Western strategists.
[…]
The growing adventurism is clearly visible in the debate over the deployment of Western troops in Ukraine. Moreover, not only hysterical Western European leaders, but also seemingly more responsible American generals have begun to speak out on the issue. For example, the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Charles Brown, has concluded that the deployment of NATO troops to the country is inevitable.
[…]
NATO members are openly practising combat scenarios in potential theatres in Eastern and Northern Europe. Much emphasis is being placed on learning lessons from the armed struggle in Ukraine. To this end, a special center is being set up in Bydgoszcz, Poland, to ensure a regular exchange of experience between Western and Ukrainian military personnel.
The weak link in the Western effort has long been the limited capabilities of its military industry. Nevertheless, NATO members are paying increasing attention to overcoming this problem. **It would be foolhardy to expect that they will not be able to increase production over time, including by increasing Western European firms’ links with the US military-industrial complex. **
(Full article at the link)
It seems to me the west is salami slicing their way towards an open conflict with Russia with NATO boots on the ground. This can only end in disaster and possibly full nuclear war. Time is not a friend for Russia here. The west has been caught without proper production but they’re not going to sit on their hands and continue to fail to fix that forever, they’re doing so more slowly than Russia obviously and sure some of the more high tech stuff they’ll never be able to churn out like Russia/China but they don’t need that stuff to fight and win a war. So the longer this goes on the more the west is able to get production into play that gets them closer to being able to either better supply their Ukrainian fodder to inflict damages on Russia and/or to be confident they have enough to enter the conflict directly as NATO troops and to challenge Russia, most likely by setting up defensive lines and waiting for Russia to hit them first, trying to force a Korea DMZ situation that still allows the US to station nukes near Russia and to build up massive armies and arms.
Of course, Russia fears a NATO attack. They’re sane people, unlike the goose-stepping demagogues of the west who think they’re the ubermensch, the “garden” with divine mandate to rule the world. (arguably NATO is already attacking, but the Russians sensibly fear- but will bravely face any escalation necessary).
I have to disagree (with caveats) on the first point, and fully on the second.
They can’t ever fix their production, not in ways comparable to China or Russia, without abandoning the neoliberal policies that led to their de-industrialization, and rooting out the corruption and inefficiencies within their for-profit MIC systems- and also, without all the various US vassals largely abandoning their own for-profit MIC systems, in favor of at least an even more extensive (and inevitably, even more American) NATO standardization system. Neither of these issues are going to be easily accepted- and even if the political will existed, neither of these issues will be easy to overcome.
As for the second point- no, they aren’t going to win. They don’t have the ability to “fight and win a war” with Russia/China, and if they try, all they will be doing is invoking MAD at worst- this has not changed, and is not at all likely to change in the future (if anything, hopefully the opposite as time goes on). The idea they could “win” is a delusion, even within Ukraine, fact of the matter is that before things ever get to that point (which is not the direction things are headed at all) things will go nuclear.