This guy talks about Lukashenko a lot and how he has and is maneuvering: https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/xxu0gi/reason_i_should_not_be_president/irf4hs6?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=2

If search for 'Lukashenko union" in the subreddit you’ll see a lot of comments talking about this same thing. /u/BigFreakingZombie shows up in a lot of the results, so you could ask him to elaborate.

When I say there can only be one I don’t mean it literally. Obviously there can be more than one. That’s the point of my post: there is more than 1 NCD Lemmy. But with social networks there’s a network effect. That tends to consolidate most users in one space. People don’t want the hassle of bouncing back and forth between 3 different NCDs. I just made 2 posts on bothe Lemmys and on reddit and it was tedious. I’d rather just settle on one, but I want to know which one. If this one and only one that is officially endorsed by the reddit NCD mods team then that will likely result in this one being the main refuge.

I have a mastodon account and a threads account, but I don’t use them. I use twitter still because most of the people I follow are there and I really don’t want to flip between 3 apps. I’m on the wait-list of bluesky and post, but I probably won’t use those much until a critical mass of people switch to one one of them.

So basically he just points out that Lukashenko in the past has wanted to unite moscovia and Belarus and become ruler over that union. When the powers in moscow put putin in power he was disappointed, but he still wants to rule the both of them. Putin also wants to unite the 2 and Luka has been dangling the possibility of them becoming one state to get putin/moscovia to support him and grant Belarus concessions and good deals on stuff. I don’t remember all the details but I think he said one of the things Belarus gets is either hydrocarbons or some other natural resource for below market rates and Belarus has been taking advantage of that by reselling it at market prices.

However, since Luka keeps dangling the possibility of a union they get away with it. He’s getting way more out of moscovia than they are getting out of Belarus, meanwhile Luka just bides his time and uses moscovia to help keep him in power.

To what? They guy with the Lukashenko theory? It was a while ago and I didn’t bookmark it or anything. I’ll try to dredge it up. No guarantees though

I am subscribed to both. I’m posting to both plus reddit which is just annoying