Centrist, progressive, radical optimist. Geophysicist, R&D, Planetary Scientist and general nerd in Winnipeg, Canada.

troyunrau.ca (personal)

lithogen.ca (business)

  • 492 Posts
  • 950 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • Your assertion that the document is malicious without any evidence is what I’m concerned about.

    At some point you have to decide to trust someone. The comment above gave you reason to trust that the document was in a standard, non-malicious format. But you outright rejected their advice in a hostile tone. You base your hostility on a youtube video.

    You should read the essay “on trusting trust” and then make a decision on whether you are going to participate in digital society or live under a bridge with a tinfoil hat.

    In Canada, and elsewhere, insurance companies know everything about you before you even apply, and it’s likely true elsewhere too. Even if they don’t have personally identifiable information, you’ll be in a data bucket with your neighbours, with risk profiles based on neighbourhood, items being insuring, claim rates for people with similar profiles, etc. Very likely every interaction you have with them has been going into a LLM even prior to the advent of ChatGPT, and they will have scored those interactions against a model.

    The personally identifiable information has largely been anonymized in these models. In Canada, for example, there are regulatory bodies like OSFI that they have to report to, and get audited by, to ensure the data is being used in compliance with regulations. Each company will have a compliance department tasked with making sure they’re adhering.

    But what you will end up doing instead is triggering fraudulent behaviour flags. There’s something called “address fraud”, where people go out of their way to disguise their location, because some lower risk address has better rates or whatever. When you do everything you can to scrub your location, this itself is a signal that you are operating as a highly paranoid individual and that might put you in a bucket. If you want to be the most invisible to them, you want to act like you’re in the median of all categories. Because any outlying behaviours further fingerprint you.

    Source: I have a direct connection to advanced analytics within insurance industry (one degree of separation).



  • Yeah. Jets fans are unhappy about two things: a failed goalie interference challenge which seems pretty blatant (and TB scored during the bench minor too!); and Kucherov’s uncalled hit from behind that took Kyle Connor out for the rest of the game. Well, we beat em on the scoreboard, and it appears Connor will be okay. Next!






  • Posting this one despite not being a resident of Ottawa. Because I’m somewhat of an ice guru, having been involved in the construction of many ice roads, runways, etc.

    There is a rule of thumb in ice safety engineering called “Gold’s Equation”. Expressed in metric, it goes: w=4h² where h is the thickness in cm, and w is the weight it can sustain in kg.

    The equation has been used safely for decades, but there are several variations on it.

    (1) It assumes that your measurements are made manually, and that there is some statistical variation that are not captured by the exact locations of your measurements. If you have something that can do continuous measurements (like a GPR), you can use 7 as your factor instead of 4, as you’ve got better info about the thinnest spots.

    (2) It assumes the ice is clear ice (also called blue ice). White ice is treated as only contributing half to thickness because it is weaker.

    (3) It assumes the load isn’t static. If a load is parked on the ice for 12 or more hours, you treat that load as weighing twice as much.

    With all of this in mind, what usually happens is: you go measure the ice. If it passes w=4h² at the outset for your required load, you kind of just accept and move on. But if it doesn’t pass, you start looking for ways to get your load approved – hire a GPR and scan, or spray water on the surface to build more white ice faster, etc.

    30cm, as per the article, will handle loads of up to 3600kg. Which is a lot, particularly when compared to skaters. But a Zamboni full of water or a snowplow or something could be risky. Bring out a GPR and truly find your thinnest spots and maybe you can get 4200kg approved. Etc.

    This is likely a non-story, for those of use versed in ice safety. But it was worth my time to type it out :)













  • I’m okay with this, for two reasons:

    (1) Tactically, while the liberals are still in power, the NDP has some sway. If they forced an election right now, they would end up being a largely-voiceless secondary opposition party. Of course, you can only really exercise that power if you’re willing to topple the government otherwise it’s all just noise. So from their perspective, it’s a fine line to walk.

    (2) Personally, I’m hoping that between now and when the writ eventually drops, PP will make such a fool out of himself that he becomes too sour to stomach. At a minimum, I hope that this forces him into minority territory. (In my opinion, the ideal situation that would result afterwards would be new leaders for both Liberal and NDP and a short lived conservative minority.)