The US Defense Department’s grand strategy for protecting Taiwan from a massive Chinese military offensive involves flooding the zone with thousands of drones.
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan. Geographically there’s nowhere but the heavily fortified western side of the island to land an amphibious assault. And even if you get a beach head there, it’s not Normandy, there’s sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains. China doesn’t have the Navy to setup a blockade or the carriers to setup an air bridge and if they did it’ll be Antoniv all over again.
However it would be very profitable for defense contractors. Hey, I should write an article about that.
Edit: sorry if it wasn’t clear in my tone, I do not like China and do not support their foreign policy. People in Taipei and across Taiwan are very very worried. And likely as not it’s so Xi can feel big after the Olympics. It’s terrible that they’re taking advantage of such global strife to pull this again. With Iran and Israel playing brinkmanship, the genocide in Palestine, the ongoing war in Ukraine… A German naval vessel is waiting for the go ahead to cross international waters.
Edit 2: I have sprinkled references to support my points throughout my comment to hopefully form a cogent thought from the word salad I originally wrote. Further reading for those interested:
There isn’t the same political pay off at home in China that Hitler got. Chinese economy is not in the same dire straights and there is no economic benefit as China would start a war with 70% of their trading partners.
Also unlike when Hitler invaded, the EU and the US is already building up arms because of the bullshit Putin is pulling right now.
When I get to my computer tomorrow I’ll drop some links. But this is sounding more like North Korea and less like Nazi Germany.
Tbf other countries were starting to build up prior to the start of ww2, it’s not like they suddenly started the war effort in 1939. Afaik the only reason the war didn’t start when other countries were annexed is because Britain and France wanted to build up their armies first and Poland just became the breaking point.
Agreed and I touched a little bit on that in the last edit of my original comment.
I really think this is Xi pushing a lame duck president in an election year to get a little more coastal boarders. Also showing internally that the recent purges have been effective and that he can now posture with a show of strength.
This could be setting the groundwork for their 2030 plans but I don’t think this is an immediate threat on the level of the general media coverage. I mean look at all the engagement it’s generated here.
Pooh bear found out his missiles were fueled with water, and some of his launch silos never existed. He did a purge of the military and got real quiet about launching an invasion
Now they’re showing their special forces threading lines of needles and riding electric skateboards.
I’m not saying China wouldn’t invade Taiwan, but I really don’t think they’re going to in the near future
To a more serious point, likely as not they’ll try a quarantine and gauge response.
They did just get access to the shared river between NK and Russia and got permissions from Russia to dredge it to give them easier access to the Sea of Japan.
Likely as not this is Xi consolidating power again and setting the groundwork to better support and enforce their shipping lanes. I mean the Belt and Road initiative wasn’t approved by Russia till recently. But with the war in Ukraine and the sanctions that followed Russia is leaning on China a lot more and Xi is taking full advantage of it.
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.
Nobody is saying invading Taiwan would be a good idea, the CCP has been very consistent in stating that they are willing to do it though.
I personally thought Ukraine wouldn’t be invaded by Russia because it would make no sense and go against Russia’s interests. Turns out I was half right, but it happened anyway.
So let’s hope that it’s all sabre rattling and continue planning for the worst.
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.
Yeah that’s a good point, the situation is not really all that analogous. I certainly hope you’re right. Maybe they can even stop harrassing Taiwan one day too.
Not a single government (not even Taiwan’s government) has ever said that Taiwan is not part of China.
I understand why you’d think otherwise if you get your understanding of the situation from online discourse. But here’s the thing: Most online discussion is coming from people who don’t know what they’re talking about.
From 1945 to 1971, China was represented at the United Nations by the government in Taipei, with almost universal recognition. It would be very odd for any country to say that Taipei (and hence Taiwan) was not part of China at that time.
And if Taiwan was part of China from 1945 to 1971, surely it must be part of China now, because there have been no significant political changes in China since then.
Both the government in Beijing and the government in Taipei recognize Taiwan as being part of China. Each government claims to be the rightful government of all of China, including Taiwan. (However, the government in Taipei only has effective control over Taiwan and a few islands, while the government in Beijing has control of the mainland.)
Since 1979, the USA has had a policy of “strategic ambiguity” where they do not say that Taiwan is part of China, but they clearly recognized Taiwan as part of China up until then, and they have not made any statements changing that position.
Wouldn’t the separatists be mainland china? Honest question. Like there’s continuity from the former china government to Taiwan’s, the people’s republic is the newest entity.
No. The ROC has no more of a claim to be Chinas rightful ruler than the PRC does, except the PRC won the mainland.
Sure the KMT led by Sun Yat-sen overthrew the Monarchy, through revolution under a united nationalist front and formed the ROC.
But you can’t ignore the decades after, during which a civil war and literally WW2 happened (which stopped the civil war).
During this time the KMT turned radically to the right under the leadership of Chiang Kai-Shek which led to a massive rift within China.
The CPC grew massively during the war and many of the left wing of the KMT sided with them.
The CPC carried out their own revolution against the current KMT and took control of the entire mainland while the KMT held only Taiwan (and carried out a little ethnic cleansing see: white terror).
The CPC then formed the official government of the PRC and was internationally recognized as the ruler of China, while the ROC continued to hold it’s islands and claim rightful ruler over the mainland launching multiple attacks, by this time it was over, even the United States who had strongly supported the KMT over the CPC had no choice but to declare the PRC the rightful ruler of China.
So the KMT has a claim to rule all of China in the same sense that a Qing descendant would. They uses to rule sure, but they lost the revolution and their still existing doesn’t grant them any power or recognition.
I’m not talking about who’s ‘rightful ruler’ or not. The roc was a country and the communist revolution took a part of the territory and made it into the prc (a new country) while the roc still exist in the remaining territory. That’s the definition of a secession. I was just pointing out one of the holes in your analogy.
Now that you took the time to write that I have a couple of questions.
Was the white terror an ethnic cleansing? I might be under informed on the matter but I don’t know anything about any ethnic groups targeted in particular.
Your last paragraphs imply that the sovereignty and territorial questions about Taiwan and the People’s Republic aren’t a settled matter for the whole world (except maybe the prc). Are there many voices claiming for the Taiwan government to be the ruler of mainland China anymore? Or any territorial ambitions other than staying an independent island nation?
Chiang Kai-shek’s claim to a legitimate ROC government are tenuous at best. He basically used his position to launch a right wing coup against the unity government and attempted to purge it of all left wing elements. Claiming legitimacy when you’ve basically used force to try and take full control over a government is par for the course for fascism. That’s why I don’t believe the CPC demonizes the ROC prior to Chiang Kai-shek. They still holds Sun Yat-sen, a key founder of the ROC, in high regard.
Also, IIRC most of the dissidents in Taiwan were mostly people who lived there or who were indigenous to the Island prior to the KMTs arrival. As such, the white terror did involve suppression of a Taiwanese ethnic identity.
I don’t disagree with the points you’re making in terms of military explanations.
I think the U.S. definitely wants to provide Taiwan with all manner of drones, as they can use that as a test bed for their own drone efforts. Even if it’s unlikely to actually occur, I think the specter of China getting involved militarily is an opportunity the U.S. is keen to exploit that will allow them to deploy and test drone systems on the dime of one of their strategic partners, rather than solely at their own expense.
But I also think that China is working on a diplomatic/economic win in Taiwan.
With the recent passage of the … oh, I can’t remember the name of it … the law that allows China to arrest people who criticize China online that will apply to Chinese citizens who live/work in Taiwan, or to Taiwanese citizens who have reason to visit China, it means that there is a pall of fear over criticizing China in Taiwan.
If folks can’t criticize China, it skews the narrative in Taiwan. A few more laws like that, some social/election influence campaigns (in the U.S. and Taiwan), and I could see a gradual undoing of Taiwanese-U.S. relations, and perhaps even a voluntary joining of PRC in a few decades.
I’m sure, though, that the U.S. is doing the same thing in Taiwan, to try to keep the relationship tight. So it sorta comes down to who can do the best data mining, influence campaigning, and crafty diplomacy.
All armchair speculation on my part, but that’s how I think it’ll shake out. Less of a military conquest, and more of a cultural conquest.
My response was targeted against the Hellfire against a Chinese Invasion referenced in the orginal article, so that was absolutely militarily driven and focused.
However the one thing the dictatorship of Xi can do is have a long form plan of unified direction and consistent rhetoric. That’s something the US has been incapable of the last 12 years unfortunately.
So yes, China is much better at looking at economic targets and wielding soft power. If Taiwan does fall, it’ll be diplomatically, with very if any military intervention. I believe the law you’re referencing came out of the CCP Central Committee Sixth Plenum referenced below.
However I would also look at the CCP’s 2030 plan and recent military purges as direct support for a military response to be essentially posturing, for now.
Xi might want an invasion to hide his own failures
China wants TSMC
** TSMC might be rigged to explode, but China might be willing to go, anyway, in a “if we can’t have it, nobody can” strategy
China doesn’t want an unsinkable aircraft carrier in range of its mainland
China wants to extend its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone
** Which itself has implications for how the US can deploy carriers around China
You can argue that none of the benefits add up to the cost of an invasion–I would tend to agree–but saying China has no incentive is just dumb. In particular, ideological reasons may be weighted much higher by Chinese leaders than any outsider could guess.
I’m quoted using such black and white language from my original post so I’ll have to leave it there even though I know it smacks of smug rhetoric, but I said it so it’ll stay.
I do have counter points to each of your points in my original post except for the unsinkable aircraft carrier, however pardon the pun but that ship has sailed. But you know that as you referenced the killswitches TSMC has.
That last point I think we agree. With the recent purges in the military and a lame duck president with a pending election that’s exactly what I think is happening here. Especially since they’re not really moving any of their “third navy” into formation for defilade and screening so it is still, as it stands, a loud and frightening bluff.
Ultimately, if China truly has no incentive to invade Taiwan, why not just recognize it as a sovereign nation? They haven’t, they likely won’t, and that to me is enough evidence to show that there is reason to invade - we as armchair strategists simply don’t know them.
Does China benefit from the current arrangement in any way that would motivate them to keep the status quo?
Yes absolutely they benefit from the current status quo.
First is the nebulous status Taiwan has in global politics the Chinese government uses it as a smoke screen for all sorts of complaints and a great source for demanding concessions and justifying their actions. Especially against the" colonial powers in the West that are oppressing the Taiwanese."
spoiler
Which there is colonial oppression from the west but I wouldn’t look to Taiwan as a victim in that regard, South America and Central Africa however are a different story. Where the PRC have their own history of colonial actions but that’s not the topic of this comment.^
For the PLA there’s an outsized boogyman with Taiwan that they can beat the war drums for to drum up support for increased military presence. They have war games frequently, almost every year, to counter the “threat of the US and their hold over the poor Chinese bretheren on Taiwan”
Much like how politicians aren’t often incentivised to fix the potholes in the roads or solve other simple issues, what will they campaign on next year if the roads and bridges are fixed this year? The PLA use Taiwan to justify arms buildups and Naval investments
Yeah, as far as PRC external communications go, it’s usually 50/50 if they mean the exact opposite of what they’re saying. It’s a very very very complicated situation, however China gains a lot more from a separate Taiwan with a nebulous international status. The US and to a smaller extent Japan and the EU both benefit from a threatened Taiwan as well actually, as it is likely suppressing the price of TSMC.
The US could do a lot for Taiwan if they were to have a unified and consistent message on the diplomatic status in Taipei. That would take away a lot of the grey area and would force China to present a direct and clear response. However that’s not in the best interests of American business who rely on cheap and exploitative labor in mainland China, and well as Smedley said, War is a Racket.
Do you have sources that backs up that claim? Just because they didn’t do so in a sabre rattling exercise doesn’t mean they can’t. Afaik their navy is actually quite capable, and actually it’s the largest in the world by number of vessels.
Basically it boils down to the US Navy has been built up to directly interidict, challenge, and if need be destroy Chinese vessels. The US Navy is and has been intentionally building naval forces to counteract Chinese naval practices and doctrine. Numbers in naval battles aren’t really all that important. Now it’s mostly down to sigint, jamming, and other interuptive measures.
Is it safe to say that the intent behind your first post was that China has no reason to invade Taiwan in part due to American protections? I originally interpreted it as China has no reason to invade Taiwan, so we should spend less.
Yes, China has very little economic or political incentive to invade Taiwan and zero military benefit. They only really have an ideological incentive that they use in messaging internal and external to bolster the PLA and shows of strength. I think current spending levels are sufficient to counter the PLA and PLAN. I think we should refocus on smaller asymmetric munitions in the DMO and also smaller more mobile platoon command structures. So redirect funding away from large ships and to more disruptive forces, especially for the USMC
To further clarify it is American, Japanese and EU protections as there is still a German Naval Vessel on standby to join in the fight and how the Japanese are ramping up their “Defense” Forces.
And even if you get a beach head there(on the West side), it’s not Normandy, there’s sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains.
Idk much about Taiwanese coastline, but your wiki article states:
The terrain in Taiwan is divided into two parts: the flat to gently rolling plains in the west, where 90% of the population lives, and the mostly rugged forest-covered mountains in the eastern two-thirds.
Yeah beach is heavily defended on the west side. Over watching those beaches are cliffs, behind those cliffs are mountains. The east side of the island, facing away from the PRC is just all mountains.
US SOF have trained Taiwanese forces to basically evac as many folk as possible and for the Taiwanese army to take up fighting positions in the mountains.
Look to Afghanistan or Switzerland or Vietnam to see how that tends to work out for the invading forces.
There’s a map in that link that shows the terrain.
Note take special care when researching this as the Taiwanese minister of defense was misquoted earlier this week. Taiwan still only hosts rotating SOF when PLA exercises are active and the US and Taiwan have their joint training/exercises. There is not and hopefully will not be a permanent US base on Taiwan.
The Taiwan government isn’t trying to unify the “two Chinas” anymore as Chiang Kai-shek and Sun Li-Jen have been dead a long while. The PLA or what’s left of it does not want control over mainland China and the current ruling Taiwanese government are happy to create 60% of the worlds super conductors.
This is actually more likely to ignite China into re-entegrating Taiwan than if they wanted all of China as it directly goes against the “one China principle” which every country has agreed, China is one and Taiwan is a part of China.
This is saber rattling from war hawks in the Pentagon and a distraction from Pooh Bear’s own internal problems. Nobody wants war in Taiwan most of all the Chinese.
Ignoring the racism…yes, China has been very clear they don’t wish to use their military for unnecessary reasons, including in the reunification, and they would rather build their country. This is evidenced by their lack of wars, unfortunately, some other countries with long histories of foreign interventionism are knocking at their doorstep.
It’s not even true. Winnie the Pooh is factually not banned in China. The Wikipedia sources a BBC article, which also provides no proof of the censorship, and then goes on to state.
“Despite the censorship, there is no general ban on books and toys depicting Winnie-the-Pooh in China; two Winnie-the-Pooh-themed rides still operate in Shanghai Disneyland.[2][3]”
No. Winnie the Pooh isn’t banned in China at all, even online. If someone uses Winnie the Pooh as a racist caricature, then yes that specific post will often times be removed.
How you people constantly pretend to not see the racism is beyond me. What’s is the connection from xi to Pooh? Because I’m always told “he looks just like him” which is 1: untrue and 2: just racist (chubby and yellow bear with small eyes looks just like Asian man…? Yeah no racism there!!)
Imagine if it was a thing to use King Kong to represent Obama and the people using It’s excuse was “it looks just like him!”. Would you defend it? It’s extremely racist.
Racism against Asians is just widely accepted for some reason.
I don’t know if this is what they’re talking about, but pretty much the entirety of the Chinese government elite is made up of Han Chinese despite there being a bunch of other ethnic groups. And, of course, there’s the ethnic groups that the Chinese government severely oppresses within their borders like the Uyghurs and the Tibetans.
The only time I hear the racism card pulled about Pooh is when it’s coming from the party line. There is a history of that being used by the government or those parroting party talking points. It’s the logic they initially used to get the references pulled internationally where they don’t have as much control of media.
I stand with the Uyghur and Tibetan people. The complex in Xiajang needs to be internationally condemned until it is demolished and a monument erected in the memory of those interned there, sometimes until the end of their lives.
Hmm… how does the Han Chinese dictator of China relate to the ethnonationalist policies of the Chinese government, which promotes the Han over other ethnic groups and outright oppresses other ethnic groups…
You know, I’ll have to ponder that for a while and get back to you on it because you’re right, I just don’t see a direct line.
TLDR: Squid, again, you’re arguing my point. I do not support Xi or the attribution of racism when I call him Pooh Bear. That’s offensive…to racists.
I think you might want to read @Antmz22@lemm.ee 's original comment to me that i’m responding to.
Ignoring the racism…yes, China has been very clear they don’t wish to use their military
I’m asking them to clarify the point how Pooh Bear is directly racist against the Han people and not just a derogatory term directed squarely at Xi Jinping.
I am fully aware of China’s ethnographic makeup and policies, especially those of a certain Han Dynasty way back when. But here’s the article I posted to them and now I post to you.
Archive link here https://archive.is/kJlQW
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan. Geographically there’s nowhere but the heavily fortified western side of the island to land an amphibious assault. And even if you get a beach head there, it’s not Normandy, there’s sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains. China doesn’t have the Navy to setup a blockade or the carriers to setup an air bridge and if they did it’ll be Antoniv all over again.
The Taiwan government isn’t trying to unify the “two Chinas” anymore as Chiang Kai-shek and Sun Li-Jen have been dead a long while. The PLA or what’s left of it does not want control over mainland China and the current ruling Taiwanese government are happy to create 60% of the worlds super conductors. In fact they have Thermite and other destructive charges setup in the fabs in case china invades. There’s other fabs in the US or EU they can spin up with engineers and personnel that will likely be swept away by the US or Japan or South Korea.
This is saber rattling from the Pentagon and a distraction from Pooh Bear’s own internal problems. Nobody wants war in Taiwan most of all the Chinese.
However it would be very profitable for defense contractors. Hey, I should write an article about that.
Edit: sorry if it wasn’t clear in my tone, I do not like China and do not support their foreign policy. People in Taipei and across Taiwan are very very worried. And likely as not it’s so Xi can feel big after the Olympics. It’s terrible that they’re taking advantage of such global strife to pull this again. With Iran and Israel playing brinkmanship, the genocide in Palestine, the ongoing war in Ukraine… A German naval vessel is waiting for the go ahead to cross international waters.
Edit 2: I have sprinkled references to support my points throughout my comment to hopefully form a cogent thought from the word salad I originally wrote. Further reading for those interested:
https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan
https://www.newsweek.com/china-taiwan-blockade-invasion-us-navy-pacific-fleet-admiral-samuel-paparo-1749139
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_Defense_Treaty_between_the_United_States_and_the_Republic_of_China
I hope you are right, but your post is giving me big “herr Hitler is not going to invade Poland” vibes.
There isn’t the same political pay off at home in China that Hitler got. Chinese economy is not in the same dire straights and there is no economic benefit as China would start a war with 70% of their trading partners.
Also unlike when Hitler invaded, the EU and the US is already building up arms because of the bullshit Putin is pulling right now.
When I get to my computer tomorrow I’ll drop some links. But this is sounding more like North Korea and less like Nazi Germany.
Tbf other countries were starting to build up prior to the start of ww2, it’s not like they suddenly started the war effort in 1939. Afaik the only reason the war didn’t start when other countries were annexed is because Britain and France wanted to build up their armies first and Poland just became the breaking point.
So on that timeline we should’ve already been at WW3 for about a year now
We might already be.
WW2 wasn’t yet a world war in 1939 either.
Both Ukraine and Gaza have the potential to spiral into wars involving players on all continents.
Agreed and I touched a little bit on that in the last edit of my original comment.
I really think this is Xi pushing a lame duck president in an election year to get a little more coastal boarders. Also showing internally that the recent purges have been effective and that he can now posture with a show of strength.
This could be setting the groundwork for their 2030 plans but I don’t think this is an immediate threat on the level of the general media coverage. I mean look at all the engagement it’s generated here.
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3371474/the-ambitious-dragon-beijings-calculus-for-invading-taiwan-by-2030/
Pooh bear found out his missiles were fueled with water, and some of his launch silos never existed. He did a purge of the military and got real quiet about launching an invasion
Now they’re showing their special forces threading lines of needles and riding electric skateboards.
I’m not saying China wouldn’t invade Taiwan, but I really don’t think they’re going to in the near future
The missile engines were being used to heat up pot noodle on cold days, so I completely understand the motivation of those remote PLA Airman
https://www.newsweek.com/china-air-force-cook-meals-missile-fuel-corruption-pla-officer-yao-cheng-1859319
To a more serious point, likely as not they’ll try a quarantine and gauge response.
They did just get access to the shared river between NK and Russia and got permissions from Russia to dredge it to give them easier access to the Sea of Japan.
Likely as not this is Xi consolidating power again and setting the groundwork to better support and enforce their shipping lanes. I mean the Belt and Road initiative wasn’t approved by Russia till recently. But with the war in Ukraine and the sanctions that followed Russia is leaning on China a lot more and Xi is taking full advantage of it.
https://www.38north.org/2024/06/the-russia-china-dprk-strategic-triangle-phantom-threat-or-geopolitical-reality/
Or how we were all convinced that Russia wouldn’t invade until it actually happened
Pasted from my response to another post
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.
There are rumors that Xi has been overthrown and is now only a figurehead.
I believe those have been debunked if I’m inferring that you’re referencing the most recent of such rumors.
https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2024/07/fact-check-photo-does-not-show-china-president-xi-jinping-suffering-a-stroke-in-july-2024-image-is-from-march-2024.html
Let me know if that’s not what you heard as I’m happy to be corrected.
Nobody is saying invading Taiwan would be a good idea, the CCP has been very consistent in stating that they are willing to do it though.
I personally thought Ukraine wouldn’t be invaded by Russia because it would make no sense and go against Russia’s interests. Turns out I was half right, but it happened anyway.
So let’s hope that it’s all sabre rattling and continue planning for the worst.
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.
Yeah that’s a good point, the situation is not really all that analogous. I certainly hope you’re right. Maybe they can even stop harrassing Taiwan one day too.
That unfortunately is never likely to stop. I wish Xi would let it go.
He’s facing internal struggles of looking weak to the military. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-military-loyal-communist-party-purges-xi-jinping-speech-2024-7?op=1
I mean fuck they just got a command structure. Until the 2000s the generals instructed the soldiers and the soldiers taught the generals.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2018/11/chinas-military-has-no-combat-experience-does-it-matter.html
They can’t even project enough power in Africa to keep Chinese nationals safe, look up Central African Republic Chinese Nationals if you like.
I think you’re right on this one, I don’t hold out much hope for it but I can dream. For now the status quo will have to do.
Keep on dreaming friend and may they be pleasant ones. It’s a curse that we live in such interesting times.
Ukraine isn’t an internationally recognized part of Russia for which all nations agree is and always was part of Russia…
If Taiwan is Donbas, China is Ukraine.
Donbas voted to secede and Ukraine said no so Russia invaded.
If Taiwan tries to secede and China says no… hopefully the US doesn’t pull a Russia.
You expect people just believe that shit? Damn. Impressively wrong on both sides of the analogy.
Yes, I believe that. Because it’s true.
What specifically did I say that isn’t an objectively true fact and is hard for you to accept someone believing?
Does the international community not recognize Taiwan as a part of China?
Was Ukraine an internationally* recognized part of Russia?
Did Donbas not vote to secede from Ukraine prior to the invasion?
Did Ukraine not say no, then Russia use that as an excuse for their “special operations”?
Edit* internationally autocorrected to intentionally.
All nations agree that Taiwan is and always was part of China?
Yes.
Not a single government (not even Taiwan’s government) has ever said that Taiwan is not part of China.
I understand why you’d think otherwise if you get your understanding of the situation from online discourse. But here’s the thing: Most online discussion is coming from people who don’t know what they’re talking about.
And not a single government, not even Peru’s government, has ever said that Peru is not part of Swaziland.
Strangely, that’s not the same thing as all nations agreeing that Peru is part of Swaziland.
From 1945 to 1971, China was represented at the United Nations by the government in Taipei, with almost universal recognition. It would be very odd for any country to say that Taipei (and hence Taiwan) was not part of China at that time.
And if Taiwan was part of China from 1945 to 1971, surely it must be part of China now, because there have been no significant political changes in China since then.
Both the government in Beijing and the government in Taipei recognize Taiwan as being part of China. Each government claims to be the rightful government of all of China, including Taiwan. (However, the government in Taipei only has effective control over Taiwan and a few islands, while the government in Beijing has control of the mainland.)
Since 1979, the USA has had a policy of “strategic ambiguity” where they do not say that Taiwan is part of China, but they clearly recognized Taiwan as part of China up until then, and they have not made any statements changing that position.
if it’s ambiguous, how can they recognize it as part of China at the same time? That’s the opposite of ambiguous.
Yeah, it’s not actually very ambiguous. It’s more confusing than ambiguous.
If you ask if the government in Taipei is the legitimate government of China, the USA will say no.
If you ask if Taiwan is an independent country, the USA will say no.
But if you ask if Taiwan is part of China, the USA will avoid answering, even though that’s the only option left.
Wouldn’t the separatists be mainland china? Honest question. Like there’s continuity from the former china government to Taiwan’s, the people’s republic is the newest entity.
No. The ROC has no more of a claim to be Chinas rightful ruler than the PRC does, except the PRC won the mainland.
Sure the KMT led by Sun Yat-sen overthrew the Monarchy, through revolution under a united nationalist front and formed the ROC.
But you can’t ignore the decades after, during which a civil war and literally WW2 happened (which stopped the civil war).
During this time the KMT turned radically to the right under the leadership of Chiang Kai-Shek which led to a massive rift within China.
The CPC grew massively during the war and many of the left wing of the KMT sided with them.
The CPC carried out their own revolution against the current KMT and took control of the entire mainland while the KMT held only Taiwan (and carried out a little ethnic cleansing see: white terror).
The CPC then formed the official government of the PRC and was internationally recognized as the ruler of China, while the ROC continued to hold it’s islands and claim rightful ruler over the mainland launching multiple attacks, by this time it was over, even the United States who had strongly supported the KMT over the CPC had no choice but to declare the PRC the rightful ruler of China.
So the KMT has a claim to rule all of China in the same sense that a Qing descendant would. They uses to rule sure, but they lost the revolution and their still existing doesn’t grant them any power or recognition.
I’m not talking about who’s ‘rightful ruler’ or not. The roc was a country and the communist revolution took a part of the territory and made it into the prc (a new country) while the roc still exist in the remaining territory. That’s the definition of a secession. I was just pointing out one of the holes in your analogy.
Now that you took the time to write that I have a couple of questions. Was the white terror an ethnic cleansing? I might be under informed on the matter but I don’t know anything about any ethnic groups targeted in particular. Your last paragraphs imply that the sovereignty and territorial questions about Taiwan and the People’s Republic aren’t a settled matter for the whole world (except maybe the prc). Are there many voices claiming for the Taiwan government to be the ruler of mainland China anymore? Or any territorial ambitions other than staying an independent island nation?
Chiang Kai-shek’s claim to a legitimate ROC government are tenuous at best. He basically used his position to launch a right wing coup against the unity government and attempted to purge it of all left wing elements. Claiming legitimacy when you’ve basically used force to try and take full control over a government is par for the course for fascism. That’s why I don’t believe the CPC demonizes the ROC prior to Chiang Kai-shek. They still holds Sun Yat-sen, a key founder of the ROC, in high regard.
Also, IIRC most of the dissidents in Taiwan were mostly people who lived there or who were indigenous to the Island prior to the KMTs arrival. As such, the white terror did involve suppression of a Taiwanese ethnic identity.
I don’t disagree with the points you’re making in terms of military explanations.
I think the U.S. definitely wants to provide Taiwan with all manner of drones, as they can use that as a test bed for their own drone efforts. Even if it’s unlikely to actually occur, I think the specter of China getting involved militarily is an opportunity the U.S. is keen to exploit that will allow them to deploy and test drone systems on the dime of one of their strategic partners, rather than solely at their own expense.
But I also think that China is working on a diplomatic/economic win in Taiwan.
With the recent passage of the … oh, I can’t remember the name of it … the law that allows China to arrest people who criticize China online that will apply to Chinese citizens who live/work in Taiwan, or to Taiwanese citizens who have reason to visit China, it means that there is a pall of fear over criticizing China in Taiwan.
If folks can’t criticize China, it skews the narrative in Taiwan. A few more laws like that, some social/election influence campaigns (in the U.S. and Taiwan), and I could see a gradual undoing of Taiwanese-U.S. relations, and perhaps even a voluntary joining of PRC in a few decades.
I’m sure, though, that the U.S. is doing the same thing in Taiwan, to try to keep the relationship tight. So it sorta comes down to who can do the best data mining, influence campaigning, and crafty diplomacy.
All armchair speculation on my part, but that’s how I think it’ll shake out. Less of a military conquest, and more of a cultural conquest.
My response was targeted against the Hellfire against a Chinese Invasion referenced in the orginal article, so that was absolutely militarily driven and focused.
However the one thing the dictatorship of Xi can do is have a long form plan of unified direction and consistent rhetoric. That’s something the US has been incapable of the last 12 years unfortunately.
So yes, China is much better at looking at economic targets and wielding soft power. If Taiwan does fall, it’ll be diplomatically, with very if any military intervention. I believe the law you’re referencing came out of the CCP Central Committee Sixth Plenum referenced below.
https://globaltaiwan.org/2022/02/what-is-the-ccps-comprehensive-plan-for-resolving-the-taiwan-problem/
However I would also look at the CCP’s 2030 plan and recent military purges as direct support for a military response to be essentially posturing, for now.
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3371474/the-ambitious-dragon-beijings-calculus-for-invading-taiwan-by-2030/
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sweeping-chinese-military-purge-exposes-weakness-could-widen-2023-12-30/
Thank you for explaining you know nothing about geopolitics right at the start.
Care to offer your views?
You can argue that none of the benefits add up to the cost of an invasion–I would tend to agree–but saying China has no incentive is just dumb. In particular, ideological reasons may be weighted much higher by Chinese leaders than any outsider could guess.
Thanks for the reply.
I’m quoted using such black and white language from my original post so I’ll have to leave it there even though I know it smacks of smug rhetoric, but I said it so it’ll stay.
I do have counter points to each of your points in my original post except for the unsinkable aircraft carrier, however pardon the pun but that ship has sailed. But you know that as you referenced the killswitches TSMC has.
That last point I think we agree. With the recent purges in the military and a lame duck president with a pending election that’s exactly what I think is happening here. Especially since they’re not really moving any of their “third navy” into formation for defilade and screening so it is still, as it stands, a loud and frightening bluff.
Ultimately, if China truly has no incentive to invade Taiwan, why not just recognize it as a sovereign nation? They haven’t, they likely won’t, and that to me is enough evidence to show that there is reason to invade - we as armchair strategists simply don’t know them.
Does China benefit from the current arrangement in any way that would motivate them to keep the status quo?
Yes absolutely they benefit from the current status quo.
First is the nebulous status Taiwan has in global politics the Chinese government uses it as a smoke screen for all sorts of complaints and a great source for demanding concessions and justifying their actions. Especially against the" colonial powers in the West that are oppressing the Taiwanese."
spoiler
Which there is colonial oppression from the west but I wouldn’t look to Taiwan as a victim in that regard, South America and Central Africa however are a different story. Where the PRC have their own history of colonial actions but that’s not the topic of this comment.^
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8dy437pdno
For the PLA there’s an outsized boogyman with Taiwan that they can beat the war drums for to drum up support for increased military presence. They have war games frequently, almost every year, to counter the “threat of the US and their hold over the poor Chinese bretheren on Taiwan”
Much like how politicians aren’t often incentivised to fix the potholes in the roads or solve other simple issues, what will they campaign on next year if the roads and bridges are fixed this year? The PLA use Taiwan to justify arms buildups and Naval investments
Note these exercises are from a year ago and you’ll see a long history of such actions if you look for them https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-plas-strategic-deterrence-a-case-study-of-the-april-2023-exercises-toward-taiwan/
https://news.usni.org/2023/10/31/chinese-military-corruption-wont-slow-pla-expansion-panel-says
I didn’t think about that - I can see Taiwans benefit as a bargaining chip.
Yeah, as far as PRC external communications go, it’s usually 50/50 if they mean the exact opposite of what they’re saying. It’s a very very very complicated situation, however China gains a lot more from a separate Taiwan with a nebulous international status. The US and to a smaller extent Japan and the EU both benefit from a threatened Taiwan as well actually, as it is likely suppressing the price of TSMC.
https://www.ft.com/content/b452221a-5a82-4f5d-9687-093b9707e261
The US could do a lot for Taiwan if they were to have a unified and consistent message on the diplomatic status in Taipei. That would take away a lot of the grey area and would force China to present a direct and clear response. However that’s not in the best interests of American business who rely on cheap and exploitative labor in mainland China, and well as Smedley said, War is a Racket.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Is_a_Racket
Do you have sources that backs up that claim? Just because they didn’t do so in a sabre rattling exercise doesn’t mean they can’t. Afaik their navy is actually quite capable, and actually it’s the largest in the world by number of vessels.
As of 2024, the PLAN(PLA Navy) is the second-largest navy in the world by total displacement tonnage[18] — at 2 million tons in 2021, behind only the United States Navy (USN)[19] — and the largest navy globally by number of active sea-going ships (excluding coastal missile boats, gunboats and minesweepers)[20][21] with over 370 surface ships and submarines in service,[22] compared to approximately 292 ships and submarines in the USN.[23]
The sources are in my original post.
Basically it boils down to the US Navy has been built up to directly interidict, challenge, and if need be destroy Chinese vessels. The US Navy is and has been intentionally building naval forces to counteract Chinese naval practices and doctrine. Numbers in naval battles aren’t really all that important. Now it’s mostly down to sigint, jamming, and other interuptive measures.
Pages 51 and 52 will be of direct interest to my point https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33153/280
https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/3/9/eagle-vs-dragon-how-the-us-and-chinese-navies-stack-up
I can’t find a source that backs up your claim that the Navy can’t blockade Taiwan, can you point it out?
I edited the comment you replied to with more sources and here is the original link that is in the post
It’s second from the bottom in the original post
https://www.newsweek.com/china-taiwan-blockade-invasion-us-navy-pacific-fleet-admiral-samuel-paparo-1749139
Is it safe to say that the intent behind your first post was that China has no reason to invade Taiwan in part due to American protections? I originally interpreted it as China has no reason to invade Taiwan, so we should spend less.
Yes, China has very little economic or political incentive to invade Taiwan and zero military benefit. They only really have an ideological incentive that they use in messaging internal and external to bolster the PLA and shows of strength. I think current spending levels are sufficient to counter the PLA and PLAN. I think we should refocus on smaller asymmetric munitions in the DMO and also smaller more mobile platoon command structures. So redirect funding away from large ships and to more disruptive forces, especially for the USMC
https://news.usni.org/2024/02/29/report-to-congress-on-navy-distributed-maritime-operations-concept
To further clarify it is American, Japanese and EU protections as there is still a German Naval Vessel on standby to join in the fight and how the Japanese are ramping up their “Defense” Forces.
Thank you for taking the time to go in depth on your claim. Have a good day!
Anytime!
I updated my previous response with another link if you’re interested in a deeper dive.
Idk much about Taiwanese coastline, but your wiki article states:
Yeah beach is heavily defended on the west side. Over watching those beaches are cliffs, behind those cliffs are mountains. The east side of the island, facing away from the PRC is just all mountains.
US SOF have trained Taiwanese forces to basically evac as many folk as possible and for the Taiwanese army to take up fighting positions in the mountains.
Look to Afghanistan or Switzerland or Vietnam to see how that tends to work out for the invading forces.
There’s a map in that link that shows the terrain.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-green-berets-explain-how-they-train-taiwan-troops-2021-10?op=1
Note take special care when researching this as the Taiwanese minister of defense was misquoted earlier this week. Taiwan still only hosts rotating SOF when PLA exercises are active and the US and Taiwan have their joint training/exercises. There is not and hopefully will not be a permanent US base on Taiwan.
https://www.taiwanplus.com/news/taiwan-news/military/240308019/defense-minister-losing-sleep-over-heightened-cross-strait-tensions
This is actually more likely to ignite China into re-entegrating Taiwan than if they wanted all of China as it directly goes against the “one China principle” which every country has agreed, China is one and Taiwan is a part of China.
Ignoring the racism…yes, China has been very clear they don’t wish to use their military for unnecessary reasons, including in the reunification, and they would rather build their country. This is evidenced by their lack of wars, unfortunately, some other countries with long histories of foreign interventionism are knocking at their doorstep.
lol who is trying to claim most of south china sea again and harassing their neighbours?
Explain the comment on racism? Pooh Bear is not anti sino to my knowledge
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Winnie-the-Pooh_in_China
Let me know if that link doesn’t work for you. 🧸😗
It’s not even true. Winnie the Pooh is factually not banned in China. The Wikipedia sources a BBC article, which also provides no proof of the censorship, and then goes on to state.
“Despite the censorship, there is no general ban on books and toys depicting Winnie-the-Pooh in China; two Winnie-the-Pooh-themed rides still operate in Shanghai Disneyland.[2][3]”
No. Winnie the Pooh isn’t banned in China at all, even online. If someone uses Winnie the Pooh as a racist caricature, then yes that specific post will often times be removed.
How you people constantly pretend to not see the racism is beyond me. What’s is the connection from xi to Pooh? Because I’m always told “he looks just like him” which is 1: untrue and 2: just racist (chubby and yellow bear with small eyes looks just like Asian man…? Yeah no racism there!!)
Imagine if it was a thing to use King Kong to represent Obama and the people using It’s excuse was “it looks just like him!”. Would you defend it? It’s extremely racist.
Racism against Asians is just widely accepted for some reason.
Ah, good. That’s all I needed to hear.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/why-censors-are-targeting-winnie-the-pooh-china-180964075/
https://www.scmp.com/abacus/culture/article/3028350/china-censors-winnie-pooh-social-media-again-following-plan-scrap
https://chinain5.com/2019/11/06/why-winnie-the-pooh-was-banned-from-the-chinese-internet/comment-page-1/
I don’t know if this is what they’re talking about, but pretty much the entirety of the Chinese government elite is made up of Han Chinese despite there being a bunch of other ethnic groups. And, of course, there’s the ethnic groups that the Chinese government severely oppresses within their borders like the Uyghurs and the Tibetans.
How does Pooh Bear relate to the Han people?
The only time I hear the racism card pulled about Pooh is when it’s coming from the party line. There is a history of that being used by the government or those parroting party talking points. It’s the logic they initially used to get the references pulled internationally where they don’t have as much control of media.
I stand with the Uyghur and Tibetan people. The complex in Xiajang needs to be internationally condemned until it is demolished and a monument erected in the memory of those interned there, sometimes until the end of their lives.
https://apnews.com/article/business-religion-china-only-on-ap-f89c20645e69208a416c64d229c072de
Hmm… how does the Han Chinese dictator of China relate to the ethnonationalist policies of the Chinese government, which promotes the Han over other ethnic groups and outright oppresses other ethnic groups…
You know, I’ll have to ponder that for a while and get back to you on it because you’re right, I just don’t see a direct line.
You still haven’t referenced Pooh Bear. I share your confusion.
Sorry… your issue here is that there is not a direct link between A. A. Milne’s Winnie the Pooh character and a Chinese ethnonationalist state?
TLDR: Squid, again, you’re arguing my point. I do not support Xi or the attribution of racism when I call him Pooh Bear. That’s offensive…to racists.
I think you might want to read @Antmz22@lemm.ee 's original comment to me that i’m responding to.
I’m asking them to clarify the point how Pooh Bear is directly racist against the Han people and not just a derogatory term directed squarely at Xi Jinping.
I am fully aware of China’s ethnographic makeup and policies, especially those of a certain Han Dynasty way back when. But here’s the article I posted to them and now I post to you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Winnie-the-Pooh_in_China